The Future Banking Observatory
From payment rails to accountable commerce.
A living operating model for programmable, agentic payments that are safe, inclusive and trusted.
Executive Question
This is not only a rail-design question. It is an institutional operating-model question: who holds authority, how limits are enforced, what evidence is created, and when leaders can commit capital with confidence.
The future of payments emerges because today's system is under pressure from multiple forces at once.
Programmable money, agent commerce, digital identity, richer data and live regulation change the incentives. A new operating model emerges because the old one cannot absorb all of those forces without losing trust, margin or control.
Every actor behaves rationally from its own position. Collectively, those decisions create the next operating model.
| Player | What they want | What they cannot accept | Likely move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumers | Convenience and control | Fraud, privacy loss, loss of recourse | Use agent assistance where trust is visible. |
| Merchants | Lower cost and higher conversion | Complexity, slow settlement, liability drift | Prefer real-time options if conversion holds. |
| Banks | Deposits, risk control and customer relevance | Disintermediation and margin erosion | Defend the deposit relationship and agent-enable payments. |
| Wallets and Big Tech | Customer ownership and intent capture | Regulatory drag and platform dependency | Become the intent layer if institutions move slowly. |
| Government | Growth, inclusion and public rails | Exclusion or systemic risk | Mandate interoperability where the market will not coordinate. |
| Regulators | Stability, fair outcomes and confidence | Loss of control or market failure | Require evidence before scale and stronger accountability. |
The future payment does not start with a payment instruction. It starts with intent.
Who is involved, where authority sits, and how value and evidence move.
Authorised flow of value and information: intent flows down, evidence flows up, control creates confidence.
Thin core. Institution-owned controls. Evidence built in.
What is demonstrated, what is specified, and what remains on the roadmap.
The living model is updated when the evidence changes, not because a publishing calendar says so.
Three questions every regulated institution should answer before the RPIB consultation closes.
What standard will represent delegated authority when an agent acts for a customer, and who owns the decision to honour it?
What proof will the institution retain that the action was within authority, within limits, and suitable for the customer outcome?
What must change in risk, operations, data and technology so programmable payments remain accountable at scale?
Which decisions must be made now so ISO 20022, Open Banking, fraud, stablecoins and agent commerce do not compete for the same scarce capacity later?
Only when all five gates are open should delivery begin.
Is it compliant, resilient and within regulatory expectations?
Will they adopt it, use it and remain with us?
Do we have the capability, operating model and resilience?
Is the architecture mature, scalable and interoperable?
Do we have evidence, prototype and economics that stand up?
Tell us the proposition, architecture decision, or transformation problem you are facing. We will tell you, honestly, whether and how we can help.
Discuss a challengeLiving models and Field Notes on the future of banking. Published when the model changes, not on a schedule.